The End Game

I don’t think that controlling fentanyl and illegal immigration has ever been the Trump end game. Driving the Trump Tariffs for Canada – control of our resources and our geographic location. The dead giveaway:

“We don’t need anything they (Canada / Canadians) have”. Donald Trump

Translation from years of negotiating, what I hear – “we want everything that you have”. Make no mistake – “ownership” of Canada constitutes the end game for this US administration. The approach – to act like a corporate raider. Weaken finances to breaking point and then offer salvation. 

The US needs:

• Energy – to support its cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence ambitions – hydro-electricity, wind farms, and fossil fuels. Also, Canada supplies 25% of US uranium needs and a greater percentage of the high grade uranium required to fire nuclear power plants. 
• Rare earth elements (“REE”) needed for targeted growth in the technology sector – Canada has emerged as a key player with estimated reserves of 15.2 million tons of rare earth oxides
• Cobalt, iron ore, copper, zinc, nickel…. Canada supplies 46% of US nickel, a metal critical for its defence industry.  
• Water – Canada has vast freshwater reserves – 20% of the world’s supply. Think droughts and wildfires in California, impossible desert golf courses, and Florida’s collapsing aquifer. Climate change will increase pressure for large scale water exports to enable some populated areas of the US continue to support life. 
• Room to grow where the life necessities of clean air and water abound
• Control of the North West Passage – the shortest route between the Atlantic and Pacific, now more navigable due to the melting ice cap. 

The End Game 

Does it make us: One, stronger; two, safer; and, three, more prosperous?

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

The US fears weaker Canadian collaboration in meeting its needs as enumerated above and that it considers so vital to its security and prosperity. I don’t think anyone believes that 51st state status is on the table but the US wants a subservient supplier beholden to its might if not to its imaginary status as a “Shining City on a Hill”. Indeed,  the US seems to have abandoned the ideals set out here by a former US president and hero of the Republican Party. 

I’ve spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don’t know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here.

Ronald Reagan, January 1989

Fighting Back

Today, Canadians from all walks of life are fighting back in numerous ways. American consumers will feel the pain as the tariffs get added on to everything from new car purchase and t-shirts at Walmart. Canadians will suffer from a shrinking economy and job losses. 

I have seen a lot of comments regarding the futility of the original NAFTA agreement and our attachment to the US economy. All of the existing agreements were between neighbours that respected international agreements and common decency. And most of all, this trade partnership just made sense. 

We have to start from where we are

We do not have a viable alternative to the US – we need to find one. Who else:  

• has designs on the Northwest Passage as valuable for its New Silk Road?
• needs unlimited quantities of rare earth elements? 
• would like at least temporary access to liquefied natural gas while it weans itself off more damaging fossil fuels? 
• has a huge population to feed?

China, of course! While I may find this suggestion af an alternative distasteful, it would be an interesting opening gambit. Entering into a new Canada / China trade and development  partnership does not need to be the end game – but it should cause the US administration to revisit tariffs as a way to strength and prosperity. 

Addendum:

There are many reasons to dislike the current US administration’s attitude toward long time friends and reliable partners. But booing an anthem before or after a sporting event? We are better than that. Alternatively, silence is more eloquent. However, stand up and sing O’Canada proudly and loudly.