The Courage to Change
Categories: Commentary, I am Inquisitive
“Today I hope for the serenity to accept what cannot be changed, the courage to change what can be changed, and the wisdom to know the one from the other.” My version of the Serenity Prayer
I am not very religious or spiritual, thus the need for the changes to the prayer. And, I don’t have and have never needed a twelve-step program. However, at this time of global turmoil the sentiments expressed seem particularly relevant to attaining some level of serenity or maybe that should that be sanity.
Accept what cannot be changed
We can’t do anything about the ever-shifting trade policies south of the border. Presidential advisors such as Peter Navarro pine for the McKinley”s “Gilded Age” and hope to turn the clocks back to a time when the US was a manufacturing powerhouse built on cheap, non-unionized labour and racial discrimination that approached slavery. I wonder, do these advisors remember McKinley’s tariffs were deeply unpopular, lead to dramatic price increases, and deep economic depression. The culmination – the McKinley assasination at the hands of Leon Czolgosz, an unemployed American labourer who blamed his job loss on tariffs.
And the Canada obsession?
Pet theories abound – the original Trump family business in North America or maybe the George Syrovatka factor. The lingering anger from when the Trump named was removed from Canadian properties in Vancouver and Toronto?
These all seem a bit nonsensical to me. I think that Elon Musk must have whispered in his ear that if the US wants to be the crypto-currency capital, “the” world leader in artificial intelligence, and re-build its capacity to make things, the US needs Canada for energy and mineral resources.
The Courage to Change
We have been complacent in our “too cosy” a relationship with the United States. But the relationship made sense. We share the longest unprotected land border in the world; and, a rich and beautiful continental land mass. We collaborated to build an economic juggernaut that relied on each other’s assets while at the same time protecting and respecting separate national interests and sovreignty. It has been a trusting relationship that took years to build. And now, only days to damage – maybe irreparably and irreversibly.
We need the courage to change – to step back from our long time North American partnership. Deep, troublesome political divides south of the 49th parallel make it unlikely that the US can be a reliable partner worthy of any trust for years to come. It will be difficult to adjust but we have to:
- Be optimistic and ambitious
- Eliminate inter-provincial trade barriers
- Find new “best friends” in the Commonwealth of Nations and in Europe.
- Reduce the animosities that exist between us and emerging economic super powers, India and China.
- Build transportation infrastructure that better serves developing trade partners to the east and west
- Invest in science – we have to hurry as European universities have already begun to recruit researchers who have lost their jobs in the US due to DOGE cost-cutting measures and increasing US science denial
- Invest in National Defence and the defence industry – but with new international partners
- Invest in the development of soft power / global influence
These bullet points will serve as fodder for more posts.
Now, I know I have a few readers in the US. The 51st state / governor garbage may have been a bit funny on day one. The idea may appeal to a tiny sliver of the Canadian population. However, repeat it to 90%+ of Canadians and chances are you may discover what “elbows up” means. So don’t! It has become appallingly rude and infuriating!
10 Comments
Larry
Given the US is both the closest country to Canada and the wealthiest I would also add to your list adapt to the new leader
We all had challenging clients so let’s adapt and see what happens if not now in four years
But this could be the new normal
I didn’t add adapting to the US reality as I think it is a given. BTW, I have adapted to challenging clients by ghosting them.
So Larry, I’m just sitting back trying to reflect on how life would be as a member of the 51st state and I’m not sure it would be all terrible or all that different.
Don’t egg my house
I am shocked – and you, a descendent of United Empire Loyalists. You and a little less than one of every ten Canadians feel that way.Far fewer than that in your part of the world, more people in Alberta.
There is a different social contract in Canada that most Canadians embrace – better childcare, much better state education, lower cost higher education, healthcare, greater belief in science, more tolerance of differences. If none of that means anything to you, you are privileged. I could go on about the continued disintegration of American society but then I would be ranting.
Larry, I agree with much of your post but I don’t see that any of your 8 bullets for change particularly require courage – free trade among the provinces should be a no-brainer and what the heck does “invest in the development of soft power” even mean? “Courage to change” will involve *serious* and real changes such as the following:
* Pipelines from coast to coast and as many LNG facilities as the market will bear. Why is Quebec so special that they can block this development?
* The whole green agenda and net-zero target needs to be put on the back burner. We are in an existential crisis right now and to handcuff our economy in a futile way effort to reduce worldwide emissions by 1.5 % is insane.
* We need to take a hard look at the federal equalization program. This is a disincentive for certain provinces to try to grow their economies.
* We need to expand and upgrade our military *significantly*. (I credit you for mentioning this). Never mind trying to get to 2% of GDP, the target should be at least 3% and asap. Compulsory national service, perhaps? I think that is an idea that is worthy of discussion. I support cancellation of our F-35 contract with the US and looking to Europe for alternatives.
* The size of government needs to be pared at least to pre-Trudeau levels. Also, now is not the time to be rolling out costly new social programs (dental and pharma) that we can’t afford.
* We need to examine our relationship with the FNs. Presently, we are spending more on FN programs than we do on national defence. Crazy.
* Scrap the dairy and poultry marketing boards. They benefit a handful of wealthy farmers and disproportionately benefit certain provinces, to the detriment of the consumer.
There is more that could be done but these steps that I have mentioned would be a good start.
Jim,
Thank you for this. The courage – this rupture is, I think, a bit like a divorce. You have lived and shared a home with someone for 25 years. For the last couple of years relationships have been unhappy. You need to make a break but questions abound. What will the children think? Can we really afford to maintain two homes? I am heading into the unknown. It takes courage to take that first step!
I think that your first bullet is un-ambitious – I will deal with this and maybe some of the rest in future posts.
On farms – some fun facts:
As of recent data, Canadian dairy farms average between 96 to 99 milking cows per farm.
• Regional differences:
• Western provinces (e.g., Alberta, British Columbia) average 130–175 cows per farm.
• Quebec has the smallest average herd size at 61–62 cows.
• Ontario averages 75–95 cows.
The average dairy herd size in the U.S. reached 357 cows per farm in 2023, marking a steady increase from previous years. This represents a 6% rise from 2022 (337 cows) and a significant jump from 1992, when the average was just 74 cows.
Regional Variations (2023)
• West: Largest herds, averaging 1,549 cows.
• Southeast: 318 cows per herd.
• Midwest: 265 cows per herd.
• Northeast: Smallest average at 143 cows.
State Highlights
• New Mexico: Largest herds, averaging 2,710 cows.
• Wisconsin: Most dairy farms (5,920) but smaller average herd size (208 cows).(Many corporately owned)
• Pennsylvania: Average of 94 cows, reflecting smaller, family-owned operations.
The trend toward consolidation continues, with herd sizes growing 382% since 1992.
Which handful of wealthy farmers are you talking about?
Thanks, Larry. You think that getting pipelines and LNG plants built in this country asap is not ambitious??? OK.
As for the farms, another fun fact is that 50% of Canada’s dairy farms are in Quebec, where the industry is a sacred cow (pun intended). This is the obvious reason why no federal political party (other than Bernier’s unelectable PPC) will touch the issue.
As for the wealth and profitability of dairy farmers, I am pretty sure they are doing just fine. According to this site (https://www.statista.com/aboutus/our-research-commitment/1239/m-shahbandeh), the average dairy farm net income in 2022 was about $250,000. I think it’s safe to assume that number is after payment of salaries to the owners and other family members, so let’s say $350 / $400,000 per farm. Not bad for running 95 to 100 cows.
I find the New Zealand milk industry very interesting. They have more cows than people and dairy is their biggest export, bringing in annual revenue of NZD$23 billion. No supply management there. Why can’t we do the same in Canada?
Thanks for this Larry.
It’s a solid list of strategies although I agree with Keith that adaptation needs to be listed. Our relationship with the US has been too much of a given for decades .. we need to train ourselves on a new mindset.
I fear full annexation – if indeed be the Trumpites’ desired outcome – is probable. I’m hoping it’s also preventable. I’m hoping that by doing all those things on your list, we have a shot at keeping, or dare I say, regaining our sovereignty,
Because if we were annexed, I think it would be a miracle that we got state status (sorry Nels) .. we’d just be the Puerto Rico of the North.
Of all the things you list that we need to be, I think ambition might be the toughest to develop. We’ve gotten awfully fat and lazy in our marriage to the USofA and are paying the price. The question on my mind: does this reaction to the 51st state insult have staying power? Grit? It’s one thing to pass on 97 cent California strawberries (thanks for the wine tips by the way) but life could get a lot tougher than that.
We’ve got some serious weak points… I’m just thinking of all those huge mortgages across the country… could the economy get so tough that we see widespread negative equity? I wonder if that would be the thing that pushes Canadians over the edge.
We sure do live in interesting times.
From my answer to Keith: I didn’t add adapting to the US reality as I think it is a given.
Be not afraid! Did you not see that Trump has pulled Elise Stefanik’s nomination as ambassador to the UN. He doesn’t want to take the chance that her seat in congress will flip even though she enjoyed a huge victory margin – her upstate New York congressional district is not happy about the 51st state nonsense. New York’s 21st congressional district forms the southern shore of the Thousand Islands area – heavily dependent on good relationships with its Northern neighbour. Neighbours include Brockville, Kingston, Gananoque, and Napanee. Special congressional races in deep red Florida districts have a democrat leading in at least one of those districts formerly held by Mike Walz of Signalgate and Matt Gaetz. https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/elise-stefanik-trump-nomination-withdrawal-un-ambassador-rcna198447
More on supply management another time, Jim. I will have to look into what makes the NZ dairy industry dynamic different – could it be geography?